Bowl Predictions
This week’s games brought a little more clarity to the Bowl situation - except for where it didn’t. Ohio State stole Iowa’s Rose Bowl season in Columbus to claim the first BCS birth. Each of the three leagues with Championship games have most of the participants decided. The SEC will feature Alabama and Florida. The ACC looks like Clemson and Georgia Tech. The Big 12, barring a Texas-sized collapse, will feature the Longhorns versus the Kansas State/Nebraska winner. The Big East looks like it will have a de facto title game between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati on December 5 (same day as Big 12/ACC/SEC Championship Games).
The Pac-10 is chaos. There is a scenario where 6 teams finished tied for first with 6-3 records. The strangest part is it is not all that far-fetched, with the exception of one game. For this to happen, Oregon would lose to Arizona and Oregon State. Stanford would lose to Cal. Oregon State would beat Oregon, but lose to Washington State (the improbable game). Arizona would beat Oregon and ASU, but lose to USC. USC would beat Arizona and UCLA. Finally, Cal would beat Stanford and Washington. In that scenario, the only outcome that would really surprise me would be Washington State upsetting Oregon State.
Who wins such a tie? The first tie breaker is record against other tied teams. That would eliminate Oregon, Stanford, and Cal. The second tie breaker is record against the next team(s) in the standings. In the scenario above, Washington, Arizona State, and UCLA all finish with 2-6 records. Oregon State wins the Pac-10 by virtue of beating all three of those teams, while Arizona and USC are eliminated for losing to the Huskies.
But that won’t actually happen. Here is what I think will happen:
- National Championship Game - Alabama (SEC #1) vs. TCU (at large #2)
- Rose - Ohio State (Big 10) vs. Stanford (Pac 10)
- Fiesta - Nebraska (Big 12) vs. Iowa (at large)
- Sugar - Florida (at large replacement) vs. Cincinnati (Big East)
- Orange - Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Texas (at-large)
